New Year's Day Primer

With so many coaching changes and the continued controversy (although not compared to Mike Leach’s in Lubbock, Texas at the moment) on both sides of the field, I would not touch this game with a 49-and-a-half foot pole. However, if you have a gambling problem I recommend you seek professional help or, if you must, go with the Gators because this still the SEC’s Florida Gators and the Big East’s Cincinnati Bearcats and based on talent it should be a Georgia-Hawaii Sugar Bowl repeat from two years ago, but with so many question marks it might turn into last year’s Alabama-Utah matchup.

I’m not picking the Ole Miss-Oklahoma State Cotton Bowl because of a conflict of interest (maybe, maybe not, but either way I don’t want to jinx the Rebels’ bid for back-to-back bowl wins. However, I will include a Cotton Bowl recap in my Ole Miss season-in-review after the season is over.). Preston McClellan will also soon be posting a recap from today’s Memphis-Tennessee basketball showdown and also preview the upcoming Liberty Bowl, pitting the C-USA’s champion East Carolina and the SEC’s Arkansas.

There will be bowl games on all day tomorrow, but I also suggest checking out the NHL’s Winter Classic from Fenway Park (Boston vs. Philadelphia) and also a top-10 battle of unbeatens in college basketball between Purdue and West Virginia. Here’s to an entertaining day in sports to begin a new year and also a new decade.

January 1 11:00 ESPN Outback Bowl - Northwestern vs. Auburn

Chris Todd threw for nearly 250 yards a game and 11 touchdowns on a five-game winning streak to open the season, including a 26-22 victory over Tennessee. Rushing for 224 yards and passing for another 235 yards, the Tigers built a 23-6 fourth quarter lead and had to weather 16-point fourth quarter effort from the Volunteers to preserve the win in Knoxville.

In the following three games, however, Kentucky beat them with the run (combined 235 rushing yards between Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke), LSU beat them with the pass (Jordan Jefferson passed for 242 yards and two touchdowns), and Arkansas beat them with the run and the pass (Michael Smith ran for 145 yards and a touchdown while Ryan Mallett threw for 274 yards and two touchdowns).

Auburn used 31 unanswered points, including a Walter McFadden pick six, to ambush Ole Miss 33-20 on Halloween and came up just short in Athens, falling to Georgia 31-24. Auburn played its most complete game in the Iron Bowl in which the Tigers used trick plays and an onside kick to mount a 21-14, but Alabama’s Greg McElroy willed his team to 12 unanswered points as he passed for 218 yards and two touchdowns (game-winning TD pass with 1:24 left) in the contest to pull out a 26-21 win.

Prediction time now: Despite valiant efforts against Georgia and Alabama, Auburn still finished the regular season losing five of six (the first team to do so and still play in a New Year’s bowl game). Northwestern recovered from a pedestrian 2-2 loss, including a disastrous 37-34 loss at Syracuse, finishing on a three-game winning streak to finish the season 8-4. Down 10-0 and playing with a backup quarterback, the Wildcats rallied with 17 unanswered points to end Iowa’s unbeaten season, surprisingly in Iowa City. With a New Year’s Day bowl game on the line, Northwestern notched another road win at in-state and rival Illinois 21-16 and then won their regular season finale 33-31 against a solid Wisconsin team.

Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948 and considering last year’s overtime loss to Missouri in the Alamo Bowl, the Wildcats are beyond due to win of these, and comparing Auburn and Northwestern’s performance in big games and the way each team finished, Northwestern will actually win one of these for the Big 10.

January 1 1:00 ABC Capital One Bowl - Penn State vs. LSU

Mixing things up and starting with the Penn State-LSU previews to hopefully recover from a 0-2 start on my SEC bowl predictions. 9-3 LSU would’ve likely been in the BCS if there wasn’t a rule that only two teams from a conference could get in. An exchange of questionable excessive celebrations overshadowed running back Charles Scott’s game-winning 33-yard touchdown with less than a minute to go in LSU’s 20-13 road win over Georgia. Following a disappointing 13-3 home loss to Florida in which the Tigers only managed 162 yards of total offense, LSU responded with the opening 24 points in a 31-10 win against Auburn.

LSU took a 15-10 lead into the fourth quarter at Alabama, but the eventual National Champion participant scored 11 unanswered to regain a 21-15 lead. An apparent Patrick Peterson interception would’ve given LSU one final chance at the upset bid, but he was ruled out of bounds and Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin kicked a 40-yard field goal, preserving a 24-15 victory.

LSU’s match-up with Ole Miss appeared to be a defacto Capital One Bowl play-in game and when the time ran out on Les Miles and his driving offense in a 25-23 loss in Oxford, but when Ole Miss disappointed in a 41-27 loss at Mississippi State, LSU had yet another chance at spending New Year’s in Orlando. In what was probably the game of the year in the SEC, LSU defeated Arkansas 33-30 on a late, well orchestrated fourth quarter scoring drive and in overtime, this year’s Chinese Bandits forced a missed 36-yard field goal in the first overtime.

Prediction time now: In their two biggest games of the year, both in Happy Valley, Penn State collapsed in a 21-10 loss to Iowa and then dropped a 24-7 decision to Ohio State. While LSU didn’t fare much better in the win-loss column, the Tigers were more competitive in their losses to Florida and Alabama and the Auburn and Georgia wins are more impressive than any of Ohio State’s.

Coupled with this year’s results, Les Miles’s LSU teams have outscored football powerhouses Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech a combined 157-44 en route to a 4-0 bowl record over the last four years. If this was a regular season game with the normal week of preparation, Penn State would have the advantage, but given more than a month of preparation LSU’s talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, will showcase itself in a mild Vegas upset.

Gwinnett County High School Basketball

I will be taking an "indefinite leave of absence" (at least a day anyways) from the SEC bowl-by-bowl previews to focus on Gwinnett High School Basketball. I will be covering Brookwood High School's Deep South Classic in Snellville, Georgia the next three days and while many of the country powerhouses (Norcross, Meadowcreek, Berkmar, Peachtree Ridge, South Gwinnett) will be playing in other tournaments throughout the Southeast, I'm expecting to see some quality basketball action and will also be an opportunity to cover my alma mater's boys and girls teams. Be expecting a tournament update after the championship games Wednesday.

Arguably the nation's best women's college basketball Connecticut's Maya Moore is a product of Collins Hill high school and high school teammate Shantell Black runs the point for the Ole Miss Lady Rebels. Peachtree Ridge product and current Ole Miss Rebel Zach Graham, long known as a defensive stopper, has six straight double-digit scoring efforts, including a team-leading 14 points in a 76-66 loss at West Virginia. Graham held Norcross product and Milwaukee Bucks' Jodie Meeks to six first-half points in a 85-80 Rebel win over Meeks's Kentucky team last year. Meeks averaged 23.7 ppg, including a school-record 54 points and ten three-pointers in 90-72 win at Tennessee. The most prominent Gwinnett High School men's player is clearly the Philadelphia 76ers' Lou Williams, a second round pick out from South Gwinnett, who's averaging 15.8 points ppg and 4.8 apg this year.

Two of Meeks's high school teammates, Al-Farouq Aminu (16.1 ppg and 10.7 rpg) and Gani Lawal (14.7 ppg and 9.8 rpg), lead ACC powers Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, respectively, in scoring and rebounding. Dacula product, former Georgia Bulldog, and current New Orleans Privateer Billy Humphrey averages 17.7 ppg and poured in a career-high 31 points against Sun Belt rival Troy in 78-76 road loss. Former Williams high school teammate, Humphrey college teammate, and South Florida's Mike Mercer averaged 11 ppg and 13.6 ppg in his freshman and sophomore seasons, respectively, in Athens and is currently 7.3 ppg with the Bulls, including a season-high 19 points in a 69-60 win at San Diego. Parkview product and Colgate's Yaw Gyawu is averaging 14.9 ppg and led the Raiders in scoring (14 points) in their lone 63-44 win at Dartmouth. A final Gwinnettian, Berkmar product and current Memphis Tiger Wesley Witherspoon has more than doubled his scoring from last year, averaging 10.1 ppg as the team's sixth man.

December 31 7:30 ESPN Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee

9-3 Virginia Tech quietly put together a nice season and if they had a semblance of a passing game, you could make the argument they could have been the Chic-fil-A Season Kickoff participant playing in the National Championship Game. Virginia Tech, led by its reckless defense and opportunistic special teams, overcame both the elements and sub-100 Tyrod Taylor passing games in their 16-15 and 31-7 home wins over Nebraska and Miami, respectively. Freshman running back Ryan Williams filled in nicely for an injured Darren Evan en route to a conference leading 1538 yards and, not surprisingly, in each of the three losses to Alabama, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina, he was held to 100 yards or less. 7-5 Tennessee, too, came up just short against Alabama, falling 12-10 in Tuscaloosa on two Terrence Cody blocked field goals, Virginia Tech’s specialty. Despite a slow start (13-26, 93 yards, 3 INT vs UCLA and 11-19, 93 yards, 2 INT at Florida), quarterback Jonathan Crompton, unlike Taylor, improved as the season progressed, completing 20 of 27 passes and passing for 310 yards and four touchdown in a 45-19 rout of Georgia. Its most impressive, minus the black jerseys, 31-13 win over South Carolina showcased Tennessee’s offensive potential with running back Montario Hardesty rushing 121 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries and Crompton passing for 142 yards and two touchdowns. Prediction time now: Tennessee had the resume, minus a 26-22 head-to-head home loss to Auburn, from playing in the Outback Bowl so who knows which Volunteer team shows up New Year’s Eve. Ryan Williams’s running style closely resembles that of Dexter McCluster who ran for a school record 282 yards in a 42-17 win over Tennessee so expect more of the same from Williams in this match-up even though safety Eric Berry sure is scary. Virginia Tech will make Tennessee one dimensional, pressuring Crompton, and forcing a few turnovers. The game will be close, but I’m expecting special teams play to key a Hokie win that will just cover the 4-point spread.

Conference USA Power Rankings December '09

Power Rankings based on a combination of a team's resume (wins, losses, scores, opponents, etc.) and more importantly how the team performs, but NOT how the team is expected to perform.

With the departure of John Calipari, Conference USA hoops programs can seemingly now breathe in a sigh of relief. Memphis is no longer the undisputed king after losing all but one starter and almost all of its scoring from last season’s sweet sixteen team. The Tigers are reloading, however, as new head coach Josh Pastner has inked 2010’s number one recruiting class, according to rivals.com. For teams that have been trying to breakthrough in the league (UTEP, Tulsa, UAB), this is the year to do it.

So, who is the new king of hoops in Conference USA?

1. UTEP (7-2) -- The Miners, currently in their fourth season under coach Tony Barbee claim the top spot after giving Oklahoma a thorough 89-74 beat down Thursday and looking very impressive doing it. Louisville transfer Derrick Caracter is nearly averaging a double-double (12.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg) since becoming eligible at the end of the first semester. UTEP took a tough Ole Miss team to overtime before falling 91-81. The Miners only other loss came in a rivalry game against New Mexico State where the Aggies bested them 87-80. I’m willing to give UTEP a pass on the NMSU game simply because rivalry games are a different breed, seeing that so much emotion is involved.

2. UAB (11-1) -- The Blazers are the surprise hoops team this season in C-USA. After losing four of five starters off last year’s squad, UAB has gotten off to a blazing start this year with wins over Georgia, Cincinnati and Butler. They also beat South Alabama, who just defeated Florida, by 18 points on the road. Aside from that road win, however, all of the Blazers significant wins have come in Birmingham. Eilijah Millsap, brother of former Blazer Paul Millsap, has been tearing it up this season (15.4 ppg, 9.8 rpg) after transferring from Louisiana-Lafayette. For me, the jury is still out on UAB. Mike Davis certainly has them believing in themselves, but we’ll see how the handle adversity as the season progresses.

3. Tulsa (9-3) -- Though Conference USA chose not to do a preseason poll this year, almost anyone around the league would have picked Tulsa as the early favorite for many reasons. They returned their top two returning scorers in Ben Uzoh and Jerome Jordan (a seven-footer who is projected as a first round draft pick by nbadraft.net). However, since games have begun, Tulsa hasn’t really done much to prove itself and have now lost their last two tilts, including a 31 point shellacking by Nevada last Saturday night. The Golden Hurricane certainly has the talent to compete for a league title and the conference tournament is in Tulsa this year.

4. Memphis (8-2) -- After having perhaps the most tumultuous off season of any team in college hoops, the Tigers, under first year head coach Josh Pastner are off to a very manageable start. Memphis lost nearly everything, with coach John Calipari leaving for Kentucky and four starters from the 2008-09 sweet sixteen team to either graduation of professional basketball. The Tigers received a boost when Elliot Williams, a Memphis native, was given a medical hardship and cleared to play immediately after transferring from Duke. So far this season, Pastner has guided the Tigers to a respectable 8-2 record, losing their two games by a total of three points. Memphis certainly boasts Conference USA’s best lost, falling to Kansas 57-55 in St. Louis on November 17. Memphis also lost a heartbreaker 73-72 to UMass in Boston. The Tigers currently don’t have a bad loss, but also don’t have a good win. They’ll need to win two of three against Tennessee, Syracuse, or Gonzaga to be in consideration for an at large bid come tournament time.

5. Houston (7-3) -- Tom Penders has again loaded up with junior college and transfer players, as the Cougars currently have eight players on their roster that started at different schools. Houston does boast the nation’s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman (27.4 ppg) and boasts an early season victory over Oklahoma in the Great Alaskan Shootout. However, the Cougars also have losses to Nevada, San Diego and a vastly overrated Mississippi State team. Penders always gets his teams up for conference play and I expect no less this season.

6. Southern Miss (8-3) -- The Golden Eagles are another surprise this season in Conference USA. With the departure of four year starter Courtney Beasley and sharp shooter Jeremy Wise, this was expected to be a tough year in Hattiesburg. Larry Eustachy has rallied the troops, however, and the Eagles are off to a decent start. Yet, back-to-back losses to Canisius and North Florida at home make me hesitant to put too much faith in them.

7. Marshall (9-2) -- Don’t let the Herd’s record fool you-- they have yet to beat anyone of consequence and a 37 point loss to North Carolina on Tuesday certainly didn’t do anything to improve their stock. Led by senior Tyler Wilkinson, Marshall will looks to turn some heads once conference play begins.

8. UCF (7-4) -- Don’t let the record fool you, the Knights could still be major factor once conference play gets underway. Three of their four losses have come to BCS teams (Notre Dame, South Florida and Connecticut). The Knights only lost to powerhouse Connecticut by nine points and nearly knocked off USF before falling 69-65. Isaac Sosa leads UCF at 12 ppg, but the Knights really need a dominant scorer to emerge.

9. Rice (5-6) -- The Owls started the season with lofty expectations as they welcomed in the No. 3 rated recruiting classes among mid majors according to ESPN.com. Rice, however, has struggled recently, losing to five of its last six including a bad sixteen point road loss to Lamar. The Owls should be able to make some noise in the conference, but I doubt that they have any kind of major impact this year.

10. Tulane (4-6) -- Dave Dickerson, now in his fifths season at the helm of the Green Wave program, is one of my personal favorites among CUSA coaches. Yet, Tulane has had a less than impressive season, including losing its last four games. The Green Wave’s one bright spot this season was a 63-60 victory over Penn State in the 2009 Charleston Classic.

11. ECU (5-7) -- ECU lacks a significant win so far this season on their resume and is just 1-5 away from home. The Pirates always play tough at home, and I expect them to steal a couple of big W's during conference play. Look for Brock Young to have a big year in C-USA.

12. SMU (4-6) -- Four years in and it appears the Doherty experiment at SMU just isn’t working. He is a combined 32-68 versus division one opponents in four plus years. The Mustangs boast so signature wins this season and will really have to turn it around to make an impact this season.

December 28 5:00 ESPN Independence Bowl - Texas A&M vs. Georgia

Compared to the Clemson-Kentucky Music City Bowl match-up, both 7-5 Georgia and 6-6 Texas A&M impressed in their rivalry games, but the overall body of work for each of these teams is considerably lacking. As for Georgia, offense cost them in a 24-10 loss at disappointing Oklahoma State, defense cost them in a questionable 20-13 home loss to LSU, turnovers cost them in a turnover-ridden 34-27 home loss to Kentucky, and they were blown out 45-19 and 41-17, respectively by Tennessee and Florida. Despite those losses and some unimpressive wins, particularly the South Carolina, Arkansas, and Arizona State games, Georgia managed to put a complete game together to stun in-state rival and eventual ACC champion Georgia Tech 30-24 in Atlanta to salvage their season, but this triumph was not enough to save defensive coordinator Willie Martinez’s job. Texas A&M was one Colt McCoy Heisman-worthy performance from the upset of the year and sending another, possibly more deserving, Texas team (TCU) to the BCS National Championship, but we will never know because Texas managed a few key stops while McCoy continued to light up the scoreboard in a 49-39 thrilling victory. If you thought Georgia was inconsistent just take a look at Texas A&M’s schedule and results. They lost at Kansas State 62-14 and at Oklahoma 65-10, but also away from Kyle Field, Texas A&M outscored Texas Tech 52-30 in Lubbock. Another interesting note: Texas A&M is undefeated in non-TV games (6-0), but also winless in TV games (0-6). Prediction time now: Georgia found a running game (Washaun Early and Caleb King combined for 349 yards and two touchdowns) and all-SEC Rennie Curran leads a defense that shut down Georgia Tech’s option attack, but neither is going to matter because Texas A&M runs a spread offense, much like Arkansas and Florida, led by quarterback Jerrod Johnson who passed for 342 yards, four touchdowns, and ran for another 97 yards against Texas. And more importantly, Texas A&M (players, coaches, fans, etc.) wants to be in Shreveport much more than Georgia. Georgia will try to control clock and play physical with Texas A&M, but, especially with Georgia replacing nearly its entire defensive staff, the Aggies will score early and often in another Vegas upset win.

December 27 8:30 ESPN Music City Bowl - Clemson vs. Kentucky

8-5 Clemson, despite a 233-yard game from C.J. Spiller, came up one drive short from FINALLY making it to a long anticipated BCS bowl game in their 39-34 ACC championship loss to Georgia Tech although based on the conference’s rivalry week performance you, like myself, were probably watching the Texas-Nebraska game and hoping for another BCS meltdown. While Clemson didn’t do themselves any favors losing to a very average South Carolina team 34-17 in the battle of the Palmetto state, but they were still only a Bobby Bowden desperation plea from spending New Year’s in sunny Jacksonville or at the very least having a New Year’s eve showdown with a more nationally prominent Tennessee. Speaking of Tennessee, 7-5 Kentucky FINALLY had a legitimate chance to snap a 25-game losing streak against the hated Vols, coming off a shocking 34-27 win in Athens in which Kentucky couldn’t have played a more perfect game, but, unlike Georgia, Tennessee’s didn’t self-destruct, but held on to a gutsy 30-24 road win, denying Kentucky their first New Year’s bowl game since the days of future number one pick and NFL bust Tim Couch. Prediction time now: Clemson has not beaten a team with a winning record since mid-October (Miami), historically falls apart at the end of the season, and this year’s seniors have lost three straight bowl games (Nebraska, Auburn, and Kentucky). Kentucky managed to lose at home to Mississippi State and then drop their regular season finale to Tennessee, but somehow won at Auburn and at Georgia. The good news is this game is not in Lexington and although C.J. Spiller should have been invited to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation, this Kentucky defense, if only because it plays in the SEC, will play more like TCU and South Carolina did and not like the ACC’s defenses to keep the usually high-powered Clemson offense in check. Because of this, expect Kentucky’s own triple threat Randall Cobb to outplay Spiller and capture the bowl MVP and lead the SEC to another victory against the overrated ACC. Clemson’s the betting favorite, so yeah don’t worry about the points and take Kentucky.

SEC Men's Basketball Power Rankings December '09

It's Christmas Eve which means conference play is about to start. And with an Ole Miss 76-66 loss @ West Virginia, one of this blogger's Christmas wishes was not meant to be. Also had the chance to watch the LSU/Washington State (encore) and Kentucky/Long Beach State games earlier this day so it was overall good day to watch SEC Basketball, but unfortunately no basketball this weekend, but there should at least be some good bowl games (albeit the first SEC bowl game is not until December 27) to watch later this weekend. Anyways here's the first edition of the SEC Power Rankings based on a combination of a team's resume (wins, losses, scores, opponents, etc.) and more importantly how the team performs, but NOT how the team is expected to perform. Without further adieu,

1. KENTUCKY (13-0) -- No brainer. They beat #11 Connecticut at Madison Square Garden and they also won against #10 North Carolina. This team has played down to some competition, namely Miami (OH) in an early 72-70 win so there may not be an undefeated season, but the conference is clearly Kentucky’s to lose. They can beat you playing any style and any one guy, but especially John Wall, can score on you.

2. OLE MISS (10-2) -- Only two losses came in San Juan against #8 Villanova and at #6 West Virginia and neither were blowout losses. The early San Juan win against #12 Kansas State continues to look better with the Wildcats on an eight-game winning streak, including wins over Dayton, Xavier, UNLV, and Alabama. The close win against UTEP looks solid, but the close win against Southern Miss continues to look worse. If Chris Warren and Terrico White are scoring, this team can play with anyone.

3. FLORIDA (8-3) -- Three straight wins against Florida State, #9 Michigan State, and Rutgers are among the league’s best, but they came at the end of November. The prime-time matchup with #5 Syracuse was a bust and then lost to Richmond (not a bad loss) and then South Alabama (a bad loss). They might have peaked in that early three-game stretch.

4. VANDERBILT (8-3) -- The Houston win is not the conference's best because Vanderbilt’s road win at Saint Mary’s, who won consecutive games at Utah State and at Oregon. And Vanderbilt’s home win against Missouri is an even better one. None of the opponents or the scores in their losses is bad, but if Vanderbilt’s going to the NCAAs, more production from A.J. Ogilvy will be needed.

5. ALABAMA (8-4) -- There’s some wins over BCS-conference opponents in Providence, Baylor, and Michigan, but all three have underachieved so far this season. The close loss to #4 Purdue is probably the SEC’s best.

6. MISSISSIPPI STATE (10-2) -- Like Alabama, there’s wins over BCS opponents (UCLA and DePaul), but both of them are worse than all three of Alabama’s three wins. Last week’s win at Houston is the 2nd best by a team other than Kentucky, Ole Miss, or Florida. The season opening loss to Rider may be the conference’s worst.

7. TENNESSEE (9-2) -- Tennessee has a great ranking (#16) and a lot of great scores (three 100+ games), but little substance that makes this a top-tier SEC team right now. They beat DePaul, but so did Vanderbilt and Mississippi State (impressively). They lost to Purdue, but so did Alabama. With this team’s talent (Scotty Hopson, Wayne Chism, and Tyler Smith) they will probably finish as a top-tier SEC team, but has not looked the part so far, namely in a 22-point blowout loss at Southern Cal.

8. LSU (8-3) -- Close OT loss to a solid Washington State team on the road showed promise, but still hard to describe early blowout losses to Connecticut and Arizona State. Tasmin Mitchell, Bo Spencer, and Storm Warren are three solid scorers that can carry a rebuilding LSU team.

9. ARKANSAS (7-5) -- There’s talent, namely high-scoring guard Rotnei Clark, and a 5-game winning streak here, but only noteworthy win is Missouri State. The blowout losses to Louisville and Oklahoma are beginning to look awful, and definitely worse than LSU’s.

10. SOUTH CAROLINA (8-3) -- They beat Western Kentucky, which Vanderbilt couldn’t do, and they also beat Richmond, which neither Florida nor Mississippi State could do, but like Georgia, they also loss to Wofford. With an injured Dominique Archie, South Carolina will only go as far as point guard Devan Downey.

11. GEORGIA (6-4) -- The record’s bad and although none of the losses are necessarily bad, none are necessarily good either. Last week’s win over Illinois might mean a more competitive Georgia team in conference compared to last year. And Trey Thompkins is a legit post player in a league lacking quality big men.

12. AUBURN (6-6) -- Early losses to Missouri State and Central Florida don’t look as bad now, but the 107-89 loss at home to Sam Houston State is the worst of any SEC team.